Estimation of Confidence Intervals for Nodal Hourly Power Consumption

The aim of this chapter is to estimate a confidence interval for nodal hourly power consumption where it is not measured. The nonparametric bootstrap method developed in the previous chapter is used to carry out this calculation. Once every value of hourly power consumption is known at each node, either by the value measured or by the confidence interval calculated, load flow studies can be executed. More precisely, two load flow studies can be performed for a particular hour of the year: the first one will use the values measured as well as the lower bounds computed for each confidence interval. The second one will use the measured values and the upper bounds calculated for each confidence interval. From these first calculations, confidence intervals for lines power flows as well as for Ohmic losses will be inferred. These intervals will be finally used to find the network configuration which would minimize Ohmic losses or avoid lines overload.